Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 21.183559 23.146968 25.334098 27.976909 31.119912 34.786249 39.461049
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 18.415803 21.006820 24.123274 28.242833 33.703974 40.956928 51.842344
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 16.526929 19.441430 23.150978 28.412235 36.056679 47.506184 67.899007
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 15.019952 18.066297 22.109245 28.165062 37.654630 53.482800 87.032554
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 13.955458 17.096797 21.414770 28.197930 39.591786 60.739397 115.359310
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 13.020218 16.177034 20.636412 27.914785 40.875806 67.372511 151.528107
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 12.255903 15.408102 19.965353 27.655503 42.094623 74.513953 204.791204
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 11.617147 14.754171 19.381850 27.426041 43.286932 82.348348 289.941237
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 11.086235 14.209252 18.901457 27.285549 44.611444 91.527480 449.612821
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 10.531067 13.585108 18.233864 26.707541 44.842132 97.777440 685.752279
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 10.368454 13.536151 18.476746 27.831517 49.288015 122.909785 4010.089981
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.970812 13.097332 18.035754 27.577003 50.313007 136.336392 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.647636 12.761205 17.750421 27.617252 52.222599 157.826143 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 9.375583 12.489026 17.551846 27.809751 54.670317 188.534533 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 9.117125 12.222516 17.340371 27.945581 57.048520 227.327037 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.823185 11.882220 16.972185 27.692868 58.159861 261.799447 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.591256 11.630312 16.743252 27.719524 60.252209 320.360077 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.335832 11.326914 16.399535 27.442172 61.221581 375.574405 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.101616 11.047748 16.082203 27.189281 62.234132 447.705277 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 7.886849 10.791440 15.791241 26.965884 63.323154 546.304054 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 7.696443 10.567737 15.547583 26.829166 64.755882 701.938076 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.467152 10.269565 15.147051 26.267170 64.240655 789.501920 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.440615 10.313295 15.398724 27.359625 71.576133 2234.282124 NaN